FAIRFIELD — Solano County seems to have fared better than some places even though the impact of Covid 19 will be felt for years to come.
Robert Eyler, the principal at Economic Forensics and Analytics out of Petaluma, recently reported on the areas of growth to the Solano County Board of Supervisors.
While Solano County has not reached the housing value it had at the start of the Great Recession, median home prices have climbed steadily since 2012.
“Covid-19 was a major shock,” he said in the report.
Some positive factors happening over the last year included Solano County Non-Farm Employment adding over 1,700 new jobs in 2019. Housing prices were up 0.3% in 2019. The Personal Income/Capita, Median HH Income, GP/Capita all up in 2018.
Solano County saw a rise in property and sales tax revenues in 2019 along with a growth in population.
Ag values were up in 2018, but farm jobs fell again in 2019, according to the economic index.
Some challenges that were faced in 2019 included the gross product growth slower than state and nation along with a population growth mainly from natural increase. The number of residents over 25 years old is below the state average for holding a bachelor’s degree, and commute times began rising in 2018.
“The Covid-19 virus is making it hard to predict the future,” Eyler said. “Because things are so unclear at the moment.”
Interest rates have dropped to 2009 levels. More than likely we are looking at a recession in 2020/21, he said.
“Hiring is going to be interesting,” he said. “Because we don’t know how many businesses will have to close. Even with the stimulus checks and government assistance, the impact could be such that the money was only delaying the inevitable because some businesses just can’t afford to hire anyone; ultimately they may not be able to even stay open.”
Solano County’s unemployment rate was 3.7% at the end of 2019, the lowest rate on record for the county economy, which was good news. The virus has changed those numbers. Approximately 143,000 residents of Solano County were employed in 2019.
With eyes to the future of jobs in Solano County, it is looking like many factors will be in play. The economy is on the border of a recession, some workers have been laid off and others furloughed. How long these measures last is unknown.
According to the report, the situation in general is looking at job losses rising and moving from seasonal to structural in the worst-case scenario. The state could be looking at a slow restart, especially in tourism, casinos and air travel. The impact on businesses will continue to affect job losses. Those businesses will be concerned about revenues and profits well into 2021.
After Covid-19, the state could be looking at an increase in manufacturing jobs especially in the health care supply chain and pharmaceuticals, and many previous low-wage earners will have lost jobs but learned new skills for a new workforce.
The travel industry will be affected and that will reflect in fewer people traveling for work and entertainment.
Workers are changing the way they do their jobs by having in-home offices and not commuting. This might become a trend of people moving away from the more expensive living areas into cheaper parts of the country. This might even become a shift in the actual hours and length of time employers are working.
“Overall we just don’t know what is going to happen,” Eyler said.
