FAIRFIELD — Solano County is just as affected by the year-long Covid pandemic as the rest of the country.
Robert Eyler, the principal at Economic Forensics and Analytics out of Petaluma, recently reported on the areas of growth with an online presentation in April.
Job growth in Solano County was interrupted by the pandemic. In the report, through the end of 2020, employers in the County retained 10,500 fewer non-farm employees than at the start of that year. In addition, there were 16,500 fewer employed residents in Solano County (those both employed in and out of the County). Prior to March of 2020, the unemployment rate had been relatively stable and near 4%, a level considered “full employment” by most economists. By the end of 2020, the unemployment rate reached 9.5%, the highest rate since 2013. This was actually an improvement over previous months leading to December 2020, reaching 15.7% in April 2020.
Employment data revealed significant job loss remains in March 2021, particularly in retail, restaurants, business services, and tourism/hospitality. In addition, Solano County’s labor force has been dramatically changed as some workers had to give up their jobs to care for themselves or others in their households, while many others changed their work locations from office to home, often even changing where they lived.
The population of Solano County as of Jan. 1, 2020, is roughly 438,527. The estimated growth for the county by 2030 is 472,048.
Solano County employers hired 10,500 fewer workers in 2020, a 7.3% decrease from 2019. Solano County’s labor force fell by 5,300 in 2020, 2.5% of residents working or seeking a job.
Solano County has experienced a recession due to the pandemic. Economic progress toward the end of 2020 and into 2021 helped ease fears of a longer recession. Forecasts for 2021 through 2024 are rising as of April 2021 (the latest data) in expectations of a strong economic recovery.
In the 2019 Index of Economic and Community Progress, the economic effects of the Covid-19 recession may put pressure on the county government due to lower taxable transactions and property values. Median housing prices actually increased from March 2020 to March 2021. Lower interest rates and higher-income jobs preservation helped to increase housing demand. Taxable sales fell sharply in Quarter 2 2020 versus Quarter 2 2019, but increased in 2020 Quarter 3 and 4 for Solano County. Solano County’s taxable sales are likely to return to 2019 levels by the end of 2021.
After nine consecutive years of growth, approximately 10,500 workers lost jobs at non-farm employers in Solano County, a reduction of 7.3% in 2020 from 2019; farm jobs stayed the same as in 2019.
From 2010 to 2019, Solano County employers added a total of 23,700 jobs; Covid-19 reduced the net gains since 2010 to just 13,300 or 11% growth over 11 years to 2020. Leisure and hospitality and other personal services jobs were hurt more than other industries according to the report.
Solano County’s housing price forecast slowly increased over 2020 as lower interest rates and movements around the state and Bay Area region led to rising demand for purchasing homes in Solano County. The median sale price for homes in Solano County was approximately $485,950 in December 2020, up 7.9% from the previous year according to Zillow Research.
The economy continues to be in flux due to the Covid pandemic and as of March 2021 the country was in an economic recession and those effects will likely continue for the foreseeable future.
